Issno 


0,    1908. 


U.  S.  DEPARTMENT  OF  AGRICULTURE. 

BUREAU   OF  STATISTICS— CIRCULAR  17. 

CHAS.  C.  CLARK,  Acting  Chief. 


GOVERNMENT  CROP  REPORTS 

THEIR  VALUE,  SCOPE,  AND  PREPARATION. 


COMPILED  AND  PREPARED  BY 

CHAS.  C.  CLARK.  Associate  Statistician. 


55581— Cir.  17—08 


WASHINGTON   :  GOVERNMENT   PRINTING  OFFICE   :  1*06 


ORGANIZATION  OF  BUREAU  OF  STATISTICS. 


Statistician  and  Chief:  Victor  H.  Olmsted. 
Associate  Statistician :  Charles  C.  Clark. 
Assistant  Statistician :  Nat.  C.  Murray. 
Chief  Clerk  :  Samuel  A.  Jones. 

Division  of  Domestic  Crop  Reports :  Fred.  J.  Blair,  Chief. 
Division  of  Foreign  Markets :  George  K.  Holmes,  Chief. 
Editorial    Division   and    Library:  Charles    M.    Daugherty,    Chief. 
Crop  Reporting  Board : 

Chairman,  Victor  H.  Olmsted,  Statistician  and  Chief  of  Bureau. 
Four  other  members  chosen  each  month  from  the  following : 
Charles  C.  Clark,  Associate  Statistician. 
Nat.  C.  Murray,  Assistant  Statistician. 
George  K.  Holmes,  Chief  of  Division  of  Foreign  Markets. 
One  or  more  persons  called  in  from  the  corps  of  special  field  agents 
and    State  statistical   agents. 
[Cir.  17] 

(2) 


^    1 


LETTER  or  TRANSMITTAL 


U.  S.  Department  of  Agriculture, 

Bureai  of  Statistic  s, 
Washington^  D.  <  ..  September  /.  19 
Sir:  I  have  the  honor  to  transmit  herewith  a  paper  entitled  "  Gov- 
ernment Crop  Reports,"  and  to  recommend  its  publication  as  Circu- 
lar 17.  of  this  Bureau.  This  material  has  been  prepared  at  different 
times  during  the  past  two  years  by  Victor  II.  Olmsted,  chief  statis- 
tician; Charles  C.  Clark,  associate  statistician;  and  Nat  C.  Murray. 
assistant  statistician  of  this  Bureau;  and  I  have  arranged  it  in  the 
present  convenient  form  so  as  to  meet  numerous  inquiries  a>  to  the 
value,  methods,  and  scope  of  the  crop-reporting  service  of  this 
Department. 

Very  respectfully,  C.  C.  Clark, 

Acting  Chief  of  Bureau. 
Hon.  James  WlLSON, 

Secretary  of  Agriculture. 

[Cir.  IT] 

(3) 


CONTENTS 


Page. 

Value  of  Government  crop  reports 7 

Origin  of  the  crop-reporting  service 10 

Methods  of  crop  reporting 11 

Scope  of  crop  reports 12 

Transmission  of  reports  to  Bureau  by  correspondents 14 

Preparation  of  reports 15 

Method  of  issuing  reports 16 

[Cir.  17] 

(5) 


Digitized  by  the  Internet  Archive 

in  2012  with  funding  from 

University  of  Florida,  George  A.  Smathers  Libraries  with  support  from  LYRASIS  and  the  Sloan  Foundation 


http://archive.org/details/govcropreOOusde 


GOVERNMENT  CROP  REPORTS:  THEIR  VALUE,  SCOPE,  AND 

PREPARATION. 


VALUE   OF    GOVERNMENT    CROP   REPORTS. 

Prices  of  agricultural  products  are  primarily  governed  by  the  law 
of  supply  and  demand;  therefore  early  information  concerning  the 
supply  is  of  value  to  all.  Those  who  produce  and  those  who  con- 
sume are  vitally  interested  as  well  as  the  dealer  who  stands  between 
them.  The  mutual  relation-  and  interests  of  agriculture,  industry, 
commerce,  and  labor  demand  that  there  should  he  published  at  brief 
intervals  during  the  crop  season  reliable  information  on  the  condition, 
acreage,  production,  and  value  of  the  principal  crops,  by  States  and 
agricultural  area-. 

Foreign  countries  depend  to  a  large  and  increasing  extent  upon  the 
United  States  for  agricultural  products.  To  meet  the  market  de- 
mands at  home  and  abroad  is  the  mis-ion  of  American  agriculture. 
The  manufacturer,  the  merchant,  the  mechanic,  the  -killed  operative 
in  the  factory,  in  fact,  all  who  consume  the  products  of  American 
agriculture,  whether  at  home  or  abroad,  are  interested  in  the  monthly 
Government  reports  of  conditions  on  the  farms  of  the  United  States. 

A-  commerce  consists  largely  in  an  exchange  of  the  products  of 
agriculture  and  manufacture  among  their  respective  producers,  com- 
merce thrives  a-  the  farmer  and  the  factory  operator  prosper.  Some 
individual-,  however,  do  not  always  regard  the  common  welfare,  and 
injurious  commercial  speculations  occur  when  ignorance  prevails 
concerning  the  condition  of  our  crops  and  the  true  relations  of  supply 
and  demand.  At  such  times  the  farmer  often  does  not  obtain  just 
prices,  while  the  consumer  derives  no  benefit  and  business  is  injuri- 
ously affected.  The  consequences  of  false  reports  concerning  the  con- 
dition and  prospective  yield  of  the  cotton  crop  alone  may  be  very 
damaging.  If  there  were  no  adequate  Government  crop-reporting 
service,  and  by  misleading  reports  .speculators  should  depress  the 
price  a  single  cent  per  pound,  growers  would  lose  $f)0,000,000  or 
more;  if  prices  were  improperly  increased,  manufacturers  and  allied 
interests  would  be  affected  to  a  proportionate  degree. 

The  Government  crop  reports  are  especially  valuable  to  farmers, 
who  are  benefited  by  them  both  directly  and  indirectly.  Those  farm- 
ers who  read  the  report-  and  thus  keep  informed  as  to  condition  and 
prospects  of  crops  profit  in  a  direct  way,  while  all  are  indirectly 
benefited  through  this  knowledge  being  imparted  to  the  great   body 

[Cir.  17] 

(7) 


8 

of  progressive  and  intelligent  farmers  and  dealers  instead  of  remain- 
ing the  exclusive  possession  of  a  few  persons. 

It  is  well  known  that  speculators  and  large  dealers  in  farm  prod- 
ucts do  not  depend  entirely  upon  Government  reports  for  informa- 
tion concerning  crop  conditions.  They  have  traveling  agents  and 
correspondents  (usually  local  buyers)  throughout  the  United  States, 
who  keep  them  posted  upon  local  conditions,  and  the  large  buyer  or 
speculator  in  return  gives  to  these  local  buyers  or  correspondents  in- 
formation in  regard  to  general  conditions.  Local  buyers  know  the 
conditions  of  crops  in  their  vicinity  better,  as  a  rule,  than  the  average 
farmer,  because  it  is  their  business  to  keep  well  informed.  The 
farmer  can  not,  by  refusing  to  report  for  his  locality  the  condition 
of  crops,  prevent  buyers  or  speculators  from  knowing  the  condition 
of  the  crop.  But  without  the  Government  crop  reports,  which  are 
made  up  largely  b}^  and  for  him,  the  farmer  could  not  be  sure  of 
receiving  any  equivalent  information  from  a  disinterested  source. 
He  may  know  very  well  the  condition  of  crops  in  his  own  locality, 
but  must  depend  upon  reports  of  others,  in  the  newspapers  or  else- 
where, for  the  conditions  of  the  entire  crop.  Prices  in  his  home 
market  are  influenced,  as  a  rule,  more  by  the  condition  of  the  whole 
crop  than  by  local  conditions.  The  entire  wheat  crop  of  his  county 
may  be  destroyed  and  prices  be  low,  if  the  entire  crop  is  large,  or 
his  county  may  have  a  "  bumper  "  crop  and  prices  be  very  high,  if 
the  entire  crop  is  short. 

Some  private  crop  reports  published  in  newspapers  are  honestly 
prepared  and  more  or  less  reliable;  on  the  other  hand,  misleading 
crop  reports  are  frequently  sent  throughout  the  country  to  affect 
prices  in  the  interest  of  speculators.  The  average  farmer  does  not 
know  which  reports  are  reliable  and  which  are  sent  out  to  mislead. 
The  Government  reports  enable  farmers  to  keep  themselves  informed 
as  to  the  general  conditions,  while  the  wide  publicity  given  them 
checks  and  limits  the  evils  of  false  reports  sent  out  by  persons  in- 
terested in  forcing  the  prices  of  products  to  figures  not  justified  by 
actual  conditions. 

The  more  certainty  there  is  as  to  the  supply  of  and  demand  for 
a  crop  the  less  hazard  or  speculation  there  is  in  the  business  of  dis- 
tributing the  crop,  to  the  benefit,  in  the  long  run,  of  both  producer 
and  consumer. 

Large  manufacturing  firms  and  agricultural  implement  or  hard- 
ware companies,  who  neither  buy  nor  sell  farm  products,  are  much 
interested  in  the  prospects  and  conditions  of  crops.  This  knowledge 
enables  them  to  distribute  their  wares  more  economically  by  sending 
large  consignments  to  sections  where  crops  are  good  and  farmers 
have  the  power  to  buy,  and  less  to  sections  of  crop  shortage  where 
[Cir.  17] 


there  is  obviously  Less  demand.  Few  fanners  realize  how  much  is 
saved  by  the  even  distribution  of  ware-  which  they  buy  from  a  knowl- 
edge of  crop  prospects.  By  this  saving,  fanner-  in  the  long  run  are 
benefited. 

It  is  important  to  railroad  companies  to  know  the  probable  size  of 
crops  in  the  country  in  order  to  provide  sufficient  car-.  The  more; 
nearly  they  can  learn  the  size  of  the  crop-  the  belter  able  are  they  to 
move  them  economically  and  promptly.  Here,  again,  in  the  long  run, 
fanner-  are  indirectly  benefited  by  the  cheaper  distribution  of  the 
crop,  due  to  better  information  of  crop  condition-. 

Under  modern  trade  regulations  and  conditions,  prompt  and  re- 
liable information  regarding  agricultural  area.-,  prospects,  and  yields 
is  also  an  important  factor  in  the  proper  conduct  of  commercial, 
industrial,  and  transportation  enterprises.  The  earlier  the  informa- 
tion regarding  the  probable  production  of  the  great  agricultural 
commodities  can  be  made  public,  the  more  safely  can  the  busine 
the  country  be  managed  from  year  to  year. 

Retail  dealers  in  all  lines  of  goods,  whether  in  city  or  country, 
order  from  wholesale  merchants,  jobbers,  or  manufacturers  the  goods 
they  expect  to  sell  many  weeks,  frequently  months,  before  actual 
purchase  and  shipment.  Jobbers  follow  the  same  course,  and  manu- 
facturers produce  the  goods  and  wares  handled  by  merchant-  of 
every  class  far  ahead  of  their  actual  distribution  and  consumption. 

For  example,  retail  shoe  dealers  place  their  orders  in  summer  for 
shoes  to  be  sold  during  the  fall,  winter,  or  following  spring  months. 
Wholesale  shoe  dealers  and  jobbers,  similarly,  order  from  manu- 
facturers the  particular  qualities  and  styles  of  shoes  indicated  by 
the  orders  of  the  retail  dealers  in  such  quantities  as  the  orders  show 
to  be  necessary.  The  manufacturers,  constantly  receiving  these 
orders,  adjust,  a-  closely  as  they  can.  their  purchases  of  material. 
employment  of  operatives,  and  quantity  of  output  so  as  to  enable 
them  to  supply  the  quantity  of  shoes  which  have  been  or  are  likely 
to  be  ordered,  their  aim  being,  on  the  one  hand,  to  meet  fully  and 
promptly  the  requirements  of  trade  (in  other  word-,  the  demand  of 
the  purchasing  public)  and.  on  the  other  hand,  to  avoid  such  over- 
production as  will  result  in  a  large  surplus  unsalable  except  at  a  loss. 

The  same  ideas  and  rules  prevail  throughout  every  branch  of 
trade,  commerce,  and  transportation,  the  shoe  business  being  simply 
an  example  of  other  lines  of  business  in  the  matter  of  ,w  doing  things 
in  advance." 

Xow,  it  is  universally  conceded  that  farming — agriculture — is  the 
basic  industry  upon  which  all  other  industries  greatly  depend.  The 
measure  of  the  country?s  crops  is  to  a  large  extent  the  measure  of 
the  country's  prosperity,  and  the  purchasing  power  of  the  people  is 

[Cir.  17] 


10 

increased  or  diminished  as  the  crops  are  bountiful  or  meager.  There- 
fore the  commercial  interests  of  the  country  are  vitally  affected  by 
the  quantity  and  quality  of  the  crops;  and  it  becomes  a  matter  of 
vast  importance  to  them  to  know  "  in  advance  "  what  the  crop  pros- 
pects are  during  the  growing  season  and  what  the  output  is  at  harvest. 

With  such  information  carefully  and  scientifically  gathered  and 
compiled,  and  honestly  disseminated,  so  that  it  can  be  depended  upon 
as  being  as  reliable  as  any  forecast  or  estimate  can  possibly  be,  and 
relied  upon  as  emanating  from  an  impartial  and  disinterested  source, 
the  merchants  and  manufacturers  of  the  country  can  certainly  act 
with  a  degree  of  prudence  and  intelligence  not  possible  were  the  in- 
formation lacking. 

If  reports  show,  during  the  growing  season,  that  the  condition  of 
wheat  is  such  as  to  indicate  a  full  crop  on  a  large  area,  the  mer- 
chants of  the  wheat-producing  sections  of  the  country  know  that  they 
can  give  liberal  orders  for  goods  to  be  handled  by  them  several  weeks 
or  months  later;  the  manufacturers,  located  far  from  the  wheat 
fields,  know  where  there  will  be  a  large  demand  for  such  of  their 
products  as  are  used  by  all  dependent  upon  the  wheat  industry;  the 
railroad  companies  know  they  will  have  heavy  freights  to  transport ; 
and  so  the  advance  knowledge  regarding  the  probable  future  out- 
come of  the  crop  serves  as  a  guide  to  every  branch  of  commerce  and 
trade  connected  with  the  wheat-growing  areas  of  the  country.  The 
same  is  true  as  to  the  other  crops — corn,  cotton,  oats,  rye,  tobacco,  etc. 

If.  on  the  other  hand,  the  condition  of  growing  crops  is  unfavor- 
able, reliable  information  to  that  effect  is  equally,  in  fact  more,  im- 
portant to  trade  and  commerce  than  when  the  promise  is  good.  For, 
when  conditions  are  unfavorable,  the  merchants,  manufacturers,  and 
transporters  must  move  with  a  degree  of  caution  not  necessary  when 
the  prospects  are  highly  encouraging. 

It  was  to  remedy  the  evils  and  to  subserve  and  protect  the  interests 
of  all,  as  above  noted,  that  Congress  provided  for  issuing  monthly 
crop  reports,  and  the  crop-reporting  service  of  the  Department  of  Ag- 
riculture aims  to  supply  the  public  at  large  with  impartial,  unbiased 
information  regarding  crop  areas,  conditions,  and  yields  which,  it  must 
be  apparent,  is  highly  essential  and  beneficial  not  only  to  farmers,  but 
also,  equally,  to  our  commercial  interests  of  every  kind  and  class. 

ORIGIN    OF   THE   CROP-REPORTING   SERVICE. 

The  first  enactment  authorizing  the  collection  of  agricultural  sta- 
tistics by  the  Department  of  Agriculture  was  the  act,  passed  May  15, 
18G2,  establishing  the  Department,  "  the  general  design  and  duties 
of  which  shall  be  to  acquire  and  to  diffuse  among  the  people  of 
ilic   [Jnited   States  information  on  subjects  connected  with  agricul- 

[Cir.  17] 


11 

tare,  in  the  most  general  and  comprehensive  sense  of  that  word." 
The  Commissioner  was  required  by  this  ad  to  u  procure  and  preserve 

all  information  concerning  agriculture  winch  he  can  obtain  by  means 
of  books,  correspondence,  and  by  practical  and  scientific  experi- 
ment-, accurate  records  of  which  experiment-  shall  be  kept  in  his 
office,  by  the  collection  of  statistics,  and  by  any  other  appropriate 
means  within  his  power." 

The  first  appropriation  for  collecting  agricultural  statistic-  by  the 
Department  was  provided  for  by  the  act  of  February  ii">.  1863,  which 
wafl  made  in  bulk  for  the  work  of  the  Department,  amounting  in  all 
0,000.  The  then  Commissioner  of  Agriculture  allotted  a  part  of 
this  amount  for  collecting  agricultural  statistics,  and  appointed  a 
statistician  for  that  purpose.  For  the  fiscal  year  ended  June  o<), 
.  the  first  distinct  and  separate  provision  was  made  for  collecting 
agricultural  statistics  for  information  and  reports,  and  the  amount 
of  s-jn.nno  was  appropriated. 

from  an  allotment  of  a  few  thousand  dollars  each  year  at  first  the 
crop-reporting  service  has  been  evolved,  perfected,  and  enlarged  into 
the  Bureau  of  Statistics  of  this  Department. 

The  appropriation  act  for  the  Department  of  Agriculture  for  the 
fiscal  year  ended  June  30,  li>0s.  carried  appropriations  of  about 
s-j-j( i.OOO  for  the  Bureau  of  Statistics,  and  for  the  current  year  the 
appropriation  has  been  increased  to  about  s-_!±_!.00<).  As  the  ap- 
propriations for  the  statistical  and  crop-reporting  service  have  been 
gradually  increased  during  the  past  several  year-,  the  field  service 
and  organization  of  the  Bureau  have  been  correspondingly  enlarged. 

METHODS   OF   CROP   REPORTING. 

The  Bureau  of  Statistics  issues  each  month  detailed  reports  re- 
lating to  agricultural  conditions  throughout  the  United  States,  the 
data  upon  which  they  are  based  being  obtained  through  a  special 
field  service,  a  corps  of  State  statistical  agents,  and  a  Large  body  of 
voluntary  correspondents  composed  of  the  following  classes:  County 
correspondents,  township  correspondents,  individual  farmers,  and 
special  cotton  correspondents. 

The  special  held  service  consists  of  seventeen  traveling  np-ent^.  each 
assigned  to  report  for  a  separate  group  of  States.  These  agents  are 
especially  qualified  by  statistical  training  and  practical  knowledge 
of  crops.  They  systematically  travel  over  the  district  assigned  to 
them,  carefully  note  the  development  of  each  crop,  keep  in  touch 
with  best  informed  opinion,  and  render  written  and  telegraphic 
reports  monthly  and  at  such  other  times  as  required. 

There  are  forty-five  State  statistical  agents,  each  located  in  a  dif- 
ferent State.  Each  reports  for  his  State  as  a  whole,  and  maintains 
[Cir.  17] 


12 

a  corps  of  correspondents  entirely  independent  of  those  reporting 
directly  to  the  Department  at  Washington.  These  State  statistical 
correspondents  report  each  month  directly  to  the  State  agent  on 
schedules  furnished  him.  The  reports  are  then  tabulated  and 
weighted  according  to  the  relative  product  or  area  of  the  given  crop  in 
each  county  represented,  and  are  summarized  by  the  State  agent,  who 
coordinates  and  analyzes  them  in  the  light  of  his  personal  knowledge 
of  conditions,  and  from  them  prepares  his  reports  to  the  Department. 

There  are  approximately  2,800  counties  of  agricultural  importance 
in  the  United  States.  In  each  the  Department  has  a  principal  county 
correspondent  who  maintains  an  organization  of  several  assistants. 
These  county  correspondents  are  selected  with  special  reference  to 
their  qualifications  and  constitute  an  efficient  branch  of  the  crop- 
reporting  service.  They  make  the  county  the  geographical  unit  of 
their  reports,  and,  after  obtaining  data  each  month  from  their  assist- 
ants and  supplementing  these  with  information  obtained  from  their 
own  observation  and  knowledge,  report  directly  to  the  Department 
at  Washington. 

In  the  townships  and  voting  precincts  of  the  United  States  in 
which  farming  operations  are  extensively  carried  on  the  Department 
has  township  correspondents  who  make  the  township  or  precinct  the 
geographical  basis  of  reports,  which  they  also  send  directly  to  the 
Department  each  month. 

Finally,  at  the  end  of  the  growing  season  a  large  number  of  indi- 
vidual farmers  and  planters  report  on  the  results  of  their  own  indi- 
vidual farming  operations  during  the  year;  valuable  data  are  also 
secured  from  30,000  mills  and  elevators. 

With  regard  to  cotton,  all  the  information  from  the  foregoing- 
sources  is  supplemented  by  that  furnished  by  special  cotton  corre- 
spondents, embracing  a  large  number  of  persons  intimately  concerned 
in  the  cotton  industry;  and,  in  addition,  inquiries  in  relation  to 
acreage  and  yield  per  acre  of  cotton  are  addressed  to  the  Bureau  of  the 
Census's  list  of  cotton  ginners  through  the  courtesy  of  that  Bureau. 

SCOPE   OF   CROP   REPORTS. 

Beginning  with  the  planting,  data  are  gathered  and  reports  made 
as  to  the  condition  and  acreage  of  each  of  the  principal  agricultural 
products,  such  as  corn,  wheat,  oats,  rye,  barley,  potatoes,  hay,  cotton, 
tobacco,  rice,  etc.  As  the  crops  progress  the  prospects  are  reflected 
in  monthly  condition  reports  upon  each  growing  crop;  such  reports 
being  expressed  in  percentages,  100  representing  a  normal  condition. 
A  normal  condition  of  100  would  be  the  condition  of  the  plant  where 
il  gives  promise  of  such  a  crop  as  might  be  expected  if  the  plant  were 
not  subjected  to  damaging  influences,  but  grew  bountifully  and  under 
[Or.  17  J 


13 

favorable  condition-,  including  favorable  weather,  freedom  from 
damaging  insects,  etc  A  "normal  crop"  is  not  a  crop  which  might 
be  raised  by  exceptional  skill  or  by  an  exceptional  farmer,  but  such 
;i  crop  that,  planted  and  cultivated,  will  be  produced  if  not  subj< 
to  damaging  influences.  Ai  harvest  time  the  yield-  per  acre  are 
certained,  which,  being  multiplied  by  the  acreage  figures  already 
ascertained,  give  the  production  or  quantitative  figures  i'<>r  the  year. 

Eleven  monthly  reports  on  the  principal  crops  are  received  yearly 

from  each  of  the  special  field  agents,  county  correspondents,  State 

statistical  agents,  and  township  correspondent-,  and  one  report  relat- 

to  the  acreage  and  production  of  general  crops  annually  from 

individual  farmer.-. 

Six  special  cotton  reports  arc  received  during  the  growing  season 
from  the  special  field  agents,  from  the  county  correspondents,  from 
the  State  statistical  agents,  and  from  township  correspondents,  and 
the  first  and  last  of  these  reports  are  supplemented  by  returns  from 
individual   farmer-,  special  correspondents,  and  cotton  ginners. 

The  general  reports  for  January  and  February  are  combined  on  one 
schedule  and  relate  to  the  number  and  value  of  farm  animals. 

The  general  report  for  March  relates  to  the  stock  of  grain  in  farm- 
ers' hands,  the  distribution  and  consumption  of  corn,  wheat,  and  oat-. 
and  the  average  natural  weight  per  bushel  of  the  wheat  and  oat-  crop 
of  the  previous  year. 

Reports  on  the  condition  of  the  crops  each  year  begin  with  the 
April  report,  when  the  condition  of  winter  wheat  and  rye,  prevailing 
diseases  of  farm  animals,  and  losses  from  disease  and  exposure  are 
dealt  with. 

The  report  for  May  comes  at  a  time  when  few  of  the  crops  are 
sufficiently  advanced  for  their  condition  to  be  reported  upon;  conse- 
quently the  inquiries  relative  to  condition  apply  only  to  winter  wheat, 
rye.  meadow  lands,  and  spring  pasture.  This  schedule  also  deals 
with  the  portion,  if  any.  of  the  original  acreage  sown  to  winter  wheat 
that  for  any  reason  has  been  or  will  be  abandoned,  and  contain-  in- 
quiries with  regard  to  farm  labor  and  tenants. 

The  schedule  for  June  deals  with  the  acreage  of  six  crops,  the  most 
important  of  which  is  spring  wheat.  It  also  covers  the  condition  of 
wheat,  oat.-,  barley,  rye.  clover,  spring  pastures,  apples,  peaches,  and 
rice. 

The  July  schedule  deals  with  the  acreage  of  corn,  potatoes,  tobacco, 
and  sugar  cane;  the  stocks  of  wheat  in  farmers'  hands:  the  average 
condition  of  all  the  principal  crops,  fruits,  and  spring  pasture.-,  and 
the  average  weight  of  wool  per  fleece. 

The  August  schedule  deals  with  the  average  yield  of  winter  wheat 
per  acre,  acreage  of  buckwheat  and  hay,  the  condition  of  the  prin- 
[Cir.  IT] 


14 

cipal  crops,  the  quality  of  clover  hay,  and  the  stocks  of  oats  in 
farmers*  hands. 

The  September  schedule  deals  with  the  condition,  when  harvested, 
of  wheat,  oats,  barley,  and  rye:  the  acreage  of  clover  seed;  the  pro- 
duction of  peaches,  and  the  number  and  condition  of  stock  hogs  on 
hand  for  fattening. 

The  October  schedule  deals  with  the  average  yield  per  acre  and  the 
quality  of  spring  wheat,  barley,  oats,  rye,  and  hops,  and  the  condi- 
tion of  corn,  potatoes,  sugar  cane,  tobacco,  rice,  and  apples. 

The  November  schedule  deals  with  the  average  yield  per  acre  of 
corn,  buckwheat,  potatoes,  hay,  tobacco,  and  rice. 

The  December  schedule  deals  with  the  production  and  farm  prices 
of  all  the  principal  crops,  the  acreage  of  winter  wheat  and  rye  sown 
for  the  crop  of  the  following  year,  and  with  the  condition  of  winter 
wheat  and  rye. 

In  addition  to  the  foregoing  the  reports  during  the  past  two  years 
have  been  extended  to  include  condition  figures  of  many  small  fruits, 
vegetables,  and  minor  products.  Information  in  regard  to  such 
products  has  been  urgently  requested,  and  as  a  basis  for  comparison 
has  now  been  satisfactorily  established  the  reports  are  received  with 
interest  and  favorable  comment. 

TRANSMISSION    OF    REPORTS    TO    BUREAU    BY    CORRESPONDENTS. 

Previous  to  the  preparation  and  issuance  of  the  Bureau's  reports 
each  month,  the  correspondents  of  the  several  classes  send  their  reports 
separately  and  independently  to  the  Department  at  Washington. 

In  order  to  prevent  any  possible  access  to  reports  which  relate  to 
speculative  crops,  and  to  render  it  absolutely  impossible  for  prema- 
ture information  to  be  derived  from  them,  all  of  the  reports  from  the 
State  statistical  agents,  as  well  as  those  of  the  special  field  agents, 
are  sent  to  the  Secretary  of  Agriculture  in  specially  prepared  en- 
velopes addressed  in  red  ink  with  the  letter  "A"  plainly  marked  on 
them.  By  an  arrangement  with  the  postal  authorities  these  envel- 
opes are  delivered  to  the  Secretaiy  of  Agriculture  in  sealed  mail 
pouches.  These  pouches  are  opened  only  by  the  Secretary  or  Assist- 
ant Secretary,  and  the  reports,  with  seals  unbroken,  are  immediately 
placed  in  the  safe  in  the  Secretary^  office,  where  they  remain  sealed 
until  the  morning  of  the  day  on  which  the  Bureau  report  is  issued, 
when  they  are  delivered  to  the  Statistician  by  the  Secretary  or  the 
Assistant  Secretary.  The  combination  for  opening  the  safe  in  which 
such  documents  are  kept  is  known  only  to  the  Secretary  and  the 
Assistanl  Secretary  of  Agriculture.  Reports  from  special  field  agents 
and  State  statistical  agents  residing  at  points  more  than  500  miles 
from  Washington  are  sent  by  telegraph,  in  cipher.  Those  in  regard 
to  speculative  crops  are  addressed  to  the  Secretary  of  Agriculture. 

[Cir.  17] 


L5 

Reports  from  the  State  statistical  agents  and  special  field  service 
in  relation  to  Qonspeculative  crops  are  sent  in  similar  envelopes 
marked  "B"  to  the  Bureau  of  Statistics  and  are  kept  securely  in 
a  safe  until  the  data  are  required  In*  the  Statistician  in  computing 
estimates  regarding  the  crops  to  which  they  relate.  The  reports 
from  the  county  correspondents,  township  correspondents,  and  other 
voluntary  agents  are  sent  to  the  Chief  of  the  Bureau  of  Statistics 
by  mail  in  sealed  envelopes. 

PREPARATION    OF    REPORTS. 

The  reports  from  the  different  classes  of  individual  correspondent- 
received  by  the  Department  are  tabulated  and  compiled  and  the  figure 
for  each  separate  State  arrived  at.  After  the  reports  from  the 
different  counties  are  tabulated  a  true  weighted  figure  for  the  State 
is  secured  by  taking  into  consideration  the  relative  value  which  the 
total  acreage  or  production  of  each  county  in  the  State  bear-  to  the- 
total  acreage  or  production  of  the  State.  The  weighted  figure  show- 
ing the  value  of  the  county  is  applied  to  the  acreage,  }-ield  per  acre, 
or  condition,  whichever  it  might  be,  and  from  the  totals  of  the  weights 
and  the  extensions  a  weighted  average  for  the  State  is  ascertained. 

The  work  of  making  the  final  crop  estimates  each  month  culminates 
at  sessions  of  the  Crop-Reporting  Board,  composed  of  five  members, 
presided  over  by  the  Statistician  and  Chief  of  Bureau  as  chairman, 
whose  services  are  brought  into  requisition  each  crop-reporting  day 
from  among  the  statisticians  and  officials  of  the  Bureau,  and  special 
field  and  State  statistical  agents  who  are  called  to  Washington  for 
the  purpose. 

The  personnel  of  the  Board  is  changed  each  month.  The  meeting- 
are  held  in  the  office  of  the  Statistician,  which  is  kept  locked  during 
sessions,  no  one  being  allowed  to  enter  or  leave  the  room  or  the 
Bureau,  and  all  telephones  being  disconnected. 

When  the  Board  has  assembled,  reports  and  telegrams  regarding 
speculative  crops  from  State  and  field  agents,  which  have  been  placed 
unopened  in  a  safe  in  the  office  of  the  Secretary  of  Agriculture,  are 
delivered  by  the  Secretary,  opened,  and  tabulated;  and  the  figures,  by 
States,  from  the  several  classes  of  correspondents  and  agent-  relating 
to  all  crops  dealt  with  are  tabulated  in  convenient  parallel  columns; 
the  Board  is  thus  provided  with  several  separate  estimates  covering 
each  State  and  each  separate  crop,  made  independently  by  the  re- 
spective classes  of  correspondents  and  agents  of  the  Bureau,  each 
reporting  for  a  territory  or  geographical  unit  with  which  he  is 
thoroughly  familiar. 

Abstracts  of  the  weather  condition  reports  in  relation  to  the  dif- 
ferent crops,  by  States,  are  also  prepared  from  the  weekly  bulletins 

[Cir.  17] 


UNIVERSITY  OF  FLORIDA 


16 


3  1262  09216  8870 


of  the  Weather  Bureau.  With  all  these  data  before  the  Board,  each 
individual  member  computes  independently,  on  a  separate  sheet  or 
final  computation  slip,  his  own  estimate  of  the  acreage,  condition, 
or  yield  of  each  crop,  or  of  the  number,  condition,  etc.,  of  farm  ani- 
mals for  each  State  separately.  These  results  are  then  compared  and 
discussed  by  the  Board  under  the  supervision  of  the  chairman,  and 
the  final  figures  for  each  State  are  decided  upon. 

The  estimates  by  States  as  finally  determined  by  the  board  are 
weighted  by  the  acreage  figures  for  the  respective  States,  the  result 
for  the  United  States  being  a  true  weighted  average  for  each  subject. 
Thus,  the  figures  for  the  United  States  are  not  straight  averages, 
which  would  be  secured  by  dividing  the  sum  of  the  State  averages  by 
the  number  of  States;  but  each  State  is  given  its  due  weight  in  pro- 
portion to  its  productive  area  for  each  crop. 

METHOD   OF   ISSUING  REPORTS. 

Reports  in  relation  to  cotton,  after  being  prepared  by  the  Crop- 
Eeporting  Board,  and  personally  approved  by  the  Secretary  of  Agri- 
culture, are  issued  on  the  first  or  second  day  of  each  month  during 
the  growing  season,  and  reports  relating  to  the  principal  farm  crops 
and  live  stock  on  the  seventh  or  eighth  day  of  each  month.  In  order 
that  the  information  contained  in  these  reports  may  be  made  avail- 
able simultaneously  throughout  the  entire  United  States,  they  are 
handed,  at  an  announced  hour  on  report  days,  to  all  applicants  and 
to  the  Western  Union  Telegraph  Company  and  the  Postal  Telegraph 
Cable  Company,  who  have  branch  offices  in  the  Department  of  Agri- 
culture, for  transmission  to  the  Exchanges  and  to  the  press.  These 
companies  have  reserved  their  lines  at  the  designated  time,  and  for- 
ward immediately  the  figures  of  most  interest.  A  mimeograph  or 
multigraph  statement,  also  containing  such  estimates  of  condition  or 
actual .  production,  together  with  the  corresponding  estimates  of 
former  years  for  comparative  purposes,  is  prepared  and  sent  imme- 
diately to  Exchanges,  newspaper  publications,  and  individuals.  The 
same  day  printed  cards  containing  the  essential  facts  concerning  the 
mosi  important  crops  of  the  report  are  mailed  to  the  77,000  post- 
offices  throughout  the  United  States  for  public  display,  thus  placing 
most  valuable  information  within  the  farmer's  immediate  reach. 

Promptly  after  the  issuing  of  the  report,  it,  together  with  other 
statistical  information  of  value  to  the  farmer  and  the  country  at 
large,  is  published  in  the  Crop  Reporter,  an  eight-page  publication 
of  the  Bureau  of  Statistics,  under  the  authority  of  the  Secretary  of 
Agriculture.  An  edition  of  over  1_>0,000  copies  is  distributed  to  the 
correspondents  and  other  interested  parties  throughout  the  United 
States  each  month. 
[Cir.  17] 


